The pandemic has marched on relentlessly. The World Health Organization reports that as of 25 September there have been 32million cases and 980000 deaths. It is likely that both of these figures are underestimates, particularly the number of cases is likely to be several times greater. One projection (guess?) suggests the number of infections will be 300million by April next year1!
The Institute of Health Metrics at U Washington has produced some interesting projections on the benefits of face masks. Here are their projections for world deaths by the end of the year.
The middle line represents current trends. The top line is what will occur if current public health restrictions are loosened (they use the term mandates easing). The bottom line represents the deaths by everyone wearing masks, a substantial saving in lives lost. At least 700000 lives will be saved if everyone wore a mask.
Of course, the value of masks is well known in Asia and the low rates of COVID in some Asian countries are at least due in part to the culture of wearing masks in countries such as Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong.
There have now been several articles on the value of universal mask wearing.2,3 Not only will it prevent the spread of COVID in 50-60% of cases, but will also reduce the incidence of other respiratory viruses, such as influenza. It is estimated that COVID vaccines will have an efficacy of about 60%, about the same as for current influenza vaccines.
The reality is that we already have in our hands, rolled out and ready for use, an intervention that will be about as effective as a vaccine. Of course masks + vaccine will be even better.
- Scudellari M. How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond. Nature. 2020;584(7819):22-25.
- Klompas M, Morris CA, Shenoy ES. Universal Masking in the Covid-19 Era. N Engl J Med. 2020;383(2):e9.
- Klompas M, Morris CA, Sinclair J, Pearson M, Shenoy ES. Universal Masking in Hospitals in the Covid-19 Era. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(21):e63.
Colin Binns, MBBS, PhD
Editor-in-Chief, Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health
School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Australia
Wah Yun Low, PhD
Managing Editor, Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health
President, Asia-Pacific Academic Consortium for Public Health
Deputy Executive Director, Asia Europe Institute
University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Victor Hoe Chee Wai, MBBS, PhD
Webmaster, Asia-Pacific Academic Consortium for Public Health
Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine
University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
